COVID-19: disease pathways and gene expression changes predict methylprednisolone can improve outcome in severe cases.

MOTIVATION: COVID-19 has several distinct clinical phases: a viral replication phase, an inflammatory phase and in some patients, a hyper-inflammatory phase. High mortality is associated with patients developing cytokine storm syndrome. Treatment of hyper-inflammation in these patients using existing approved therapies with proven safety profiles could address the immediate need to reduce mortality. RESULTS: We analyzed the changes in the gene expression, pathways and putative mechanisms induced by SARS-CoV2 in NHBE, and A549 cells, as well as COVID-19 lung versus their respective controls. We used these changes to identify FDA approved drugs that could be repurposed to help COVID-19 patients with severe symptoms related to hyper-inflammation. We identified methylprednisolone (MP) as a potential leading therapy. The results were then confirmed in five independent validation datasets including Vero E6 cells, lung and intestinal organoids, as well as additional patient lung sample versus their respective controls. Finally, the efficacy of MP was validated in an independent clinical study. Thirty-day all-cause mortality occurred at a significantly lower rate in the MP-treated group compared to control group (29.6% versus 16.6%, P = 0.027). Clinical results confirmed the in silico prediction that MP could improve outcomes in severe cases of COVID-19. A low number needed to treat (NNT = 5) suggests MP may be more efficacious than dexamethasone or hydrocortisone. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: iPathwayGuide is available at https://advaitabio.com/ipathwayguide/. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A Computational, Tissue-Realistic Model of Pressure Ulcer Formation in Individuals with Spinal Cord Injury.

People with spinal cord injury (SCI) are predisposed to pressure ulcers (PU). PU remain a significant burden in cost of care and quality of life despite improved mechanistic understanding and advanced interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) of ischemia/reperfusion-induced inflammation and PU (the PUABM) was created, calibrated to serial images of post-SCI PU, and used to investigate potential treatments in silico. Tissue-level features of the PUABM recapitulated visual patterns of ulcer formation in individuals with SCI. These morphological features, along with simulated cell counts and mediator concentrations, suggested that the influence of inflammatory dynamics caused simulations to be committed to "better" vs. "worse" outcomes by 4 days of simulated time and prior to ulcer formation. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters suggested that increasing oxygen availability would reduce PU incidence. Using the PUABM, in silico trials of anti-inflammatory treatments such as corticosteroids and a neutralizing antibody targeted at Damage-Associated Molecular Pattern molecules (DAMPs) suggested that, at best, early application at a sufficiently high dose could attenuate local inflammation and reduce pressure-associated tissue damage, but could not reduce PU incidence. The PUABM thus shows promise as an adjunct for mechanistic understanding, diagnosis, and design of therapies in the setting of PU.

Strategic Priming with Multiple Antigens can Yield Memory Cell Phenotypes Optimized for Infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis: A Computational Study.

Lack of an effective vaccine results in 9 million new cases of tuberculosis (TB) every year and 1.8 million deaths worldwide. Although many infants are vaccinated at birth with BCG (an attenuated M. bovis), this does not prevent infection or development of TB after childhood. Immune responses necessary for prevention of infection or disease are still unknown, making development of effective vaccines against TB challenging. Several new vaccines are ready for human clinical trials, but these trials are difficult and expensive; especially challenging is determining the appropriate cellular response necessary for protection. The magnitude of an immune response is likely key to generating a successful vaccine. Characteristics such as numbers of central memory (CM) and effector memory (EM) T cells responsive to a diverse set of epitopes are also correlated with protection. Promising vaccines against TB contain mycobacterial subunit antigens (Ag) present during both active and latent infection. We hypothesize that protection against different key immunodominant antigens could require a vaccine that produces different levels of EM and CM for each Ag-specific memory population. We created a computational model to explore EM and CM values, and their ratio, within what we term Memory Design Space. Our model captures events involved in T cell priming within lymph nodes and tracks their circulation through blood to peripheral tissues. We used the model to test whether multiple Ag-specific memory cell populations could be generated with distinct locations within Memory Design Space at a specific time point post vaccination. Boosting can further shift memory populations to memory cell ratios unreachable by initial priming events. By strategically varying antigen load, properties of cellular interactions within the LN, and delivery parameters (e.g., number of boosts) of multi-subunit vaccines, we can generate multiple Ag-specific memory populations that cover a wide range of Memory Design Space. Given a set of desired characteristics for Ag-specific memory populations, we can use our model as a tool to predict vaccine formulations that will generate those populations.

Central role for MCP-1/CCL2 in injury-induced inflammation revealed by in vitro, in silico, and clinical studies.

The translation of in vitro findings to clinical outcomes is often elusive. Trauma/hemorrhagic shock (T/HS) results in hepatic hypoxia that drives inflammation. We hypothesize that in silico methods would help bridge in vitro hepatocyte data and clinical T/HS, in which the liver is a primary site of inflammation. Primary mouse hepatocytes were cultured under hypoxia (1% O2) or normoxia (21% O2) for 1-72 h, and both the cell supernatants and protein lysates were assayed for 18 inflammatory mediators by Luminex™ technology. Statistical analysis and data-driven modeling were employed to characterize the main components of the cellular response. Statistical analyses, hierarchical and k-means clustering, Principal Component Analysis, and Dynamic Network Analysis suggested MCP-1/CCL2 and IL-1α as central coordinators of hepatocyte-mediated inflammation in C57BL/6 mouse hepatocytes. Hepatocytes from MCP-1-null mice had altered dynamic inflammatory networks. Circulating MCP-1 levels segregated human T/HS survivors from non-survivors. Furthermore, T/HS survivors with elevated early levels of plasma MCP-1 post-injury had longer total lengths of stay, longer intensive care unit lengths of stay, and prolonged requirement for mechanical ventilation vs. those with low plasma MCP-1. This study identifies MCP-1 as a main driver of the response of hepatocytes in vitro and as a biomarker for clinical outcomes in T/HS, and suggests an experimental and computational framework for discovery of novel clinical biomarkers in inflammatory diseases.

Analysis of serum inflammatory mediators identifies unique dynamic networks associated with death and spontaneous survival in pediatric acute liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Tools to predict death or spontaneous survival are necessary to inform liver transplantation (LTx) decisions in pediatric acute liver failure (PALF), but such tools are not available. Recent data suggest that immune/inflammatory dysregulation occurs in the setting of acute liver failure. We hypothesized that specific, dynamic, and measurable patterns of immune/inflammatory dysregulation will correlate with outcomes in PALF. METHODS: We assayed 26 inflammatory mediators on stored serum samples obtained from a convenience sample of 49 children in the PALF study group (PALFSG) collected within 7 days after enrollment. Outcomes were assessed within 21 days of enrollment consisting of spontaneous survivors, non-survivors, and LTx recipients. Data were subjected to statistical analysis, patient-specific Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) inference. FINDINGS: Raw inflammatory mediator levels assessed over time did not distinguish among PALF outcomes. However, DBN analysis did reveal distinct interferon-gamma-related networks that distinguished spontaneous survivors from those who died. The network identified in LTx patients pre-transplant was more like that seen in spontaneous survivors than in those who died, a finding supported by PCA. INTERPRETATION: The application of DBN analysis of inflammatory mediators in this small patient sample appears to differentiate survivors from non-survivors in PALF. Patterns associated with LTx pre-transplant were more like those seen in spontaneous survivors than in those who died. DBN-based analyses might lead to a better prediction of outcome in PALF, and could also have more general utility in other complex diseases with an inflammatory etiology.

Computational Modeling of Inflammation and Wound Healing.

OBJECTIVE: Inflammation is both central to proper wound healing and a key driver of chronic tissue injury via a positive-feedback loop incited by incidental cell damage. We seek to derive actionable insights into the role of inflammation in wound healing in order to improve outcomes for individual patients. APPROACH: To date, dynamic computational models have been used to study the time evolution of inflammation in wound healing. Emerging clinical data on histo-pathological and macroscopic images of evolving wounds, as well as noninvasive measures of blood flow, suggested the need for tissue-realistic, agent-based, and hybrid mechanistic computational simulations of inflammation and wound healing. INNOVATION: We developed a computational modeling system, Simple Platform for Agent-based Representation of Knowledge, to facilitate the construction of tissue-realistic models. RESULTS: A hybrid equation-agent-based model (ABM) of pressure ulcer formation in both spinal cord-injured and -uninjured patients was used to identify control points that reduce stress caused by tissue ischemia/reperfusion. An ABM of arterial restenosis revealed new dynamics of cell migration during neointimal hyperplasia that match histological features, but contradict the currently prevailing mechanistic hypothesis. ABMs of vocal fold inflammation were used to predict inflammatory trajectories in individuals, possibly allowing for personalized treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The intertwined inflammatory and wound healing responses can be modeled computationally to make predictions in individuals, simulate therapies, and gain mechanistic insights.

A two-compartment mathematical model of endotoxin-induced inflammatory and physiologic alterations in swine.

OBJECTIVE: To gain insights into individual variations in acute inflammation and physiology. DESIGN: Large-animal study combined with mathematical modeling. SETTING: Academic large-animal and computational laboratories. SUBJECTS: Outbred juvenile swine. INTERVENTIONS: Four swine were instrumented and subjected to endotoxemia (100 µg/kg), followed by serial plasma sampling. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Swine exhibited various degrees of inflammation and acute lung injury, including one death with severe acute lung injury (PaO(2)/FIO(2) ratio µ200 and static compliance µ10 L/cm H(2)O). Plasma interleukin-1ß, interleukin-4, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, interleukin-10, tumor necrosis factor-α, high mobility group box-1, and NO(2)/NO(3) were significantly (p µ .05) elevated over the course of the experiment. Principal component analysis was used to suggest principal drivers of inflammation. Based in part on principal component analysis, an ordinary differential equation model was constructed, consisting of the lung and the blood (as a surrogate for the rest of the body), in which endotoxin induces tumor necrosis factor-α in monocytes in the blood, followed by the trafficking of these cells into the lung leading to the release of high mobility group box-1, which in turn stimulates the release of interleukin-1ß from resident macrophages. The ordinary differential equation model also included blood pressure, PaO(2), and FIO(2), and a damage variable that summarizes the health of the animal. This ordinary differential equation model could be fit to both inflammatory and physiologic data in the individual swine. The predicted time course of damage could be matched to the oxygen index in three of the four swine. CONCLUSIONS: The approach described herein may aid in predicting inflammation and physiologic dysfunction in small cohorts of subjects with diverse phenotypes and outcomes.

A dynamic view of trauma/hemorrhage-induced inflammation in mice: principal drivers and networks.

BACKGROUND: Complex biological processes such as acute inflammation induced by trauma/hemorrhagic shock/ (T/HS) are dynamic and multi-dimensional. We utilized multiplexing cytokine analysis coupled with data-driven modeling to gain a systems perspective into T/HS. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Mice were subjected to surgical cannulation trauma (ST) ± hemorrhagic shock (HS; 25 mmHg), and followed for 1, 2, 3, or 4 h in each case. Serum was assayed for 20 cytokines and NO(2) (-)/NO(3) (-). These data were analyzed using four data-driven methods (Hierarchical Clustering Analysis [HCA], multivariate analysis [MA], Principal Component Analysis [PCA], and Dynamic Network Analysis [DyNA]). Using HCA, animals subjected to ST vs. ST + HS could be partially segregated based on inflammatory mediator profiles, despite a large overlap. Based on MA, interleukin [IL]-12p40/p70 (IL-12.total), monokine induced by interferon-γ (CXCL-9) [MIG], and IP-10 were the best discriminators between ST and ST/HS. PCA suggested that the inflammatory mediators found in the three main principal components in animals subjected to ST were IL-6, IL-10, and IL-13, while the three principal components in ST + HS included a large number of cytokines including IL-6, IL-10, keratinocyte-derived cytokine (CXCL-1) [KC], and tumor necrosis factor-α [TNF-α]. DyNA suggested that the circulating mediators produced in response to ST were characterized by a high degree of interconnection/complexity at all time points; the response to ST + HS consisted of different central nodes, and exhibited zero network density over the first 2 h with lesser connectivity vs. ST at all time points. DyNA also helped link the conclusions from MA and PCA, in that central nodes consisting of IP-10 and IL-12 were seen in ST, while MIG and IL-6 were central nodes in ST + HS. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These studies help elucidate the dynamics of T/HS-induced inflammation, complementing other forms of dynamic mechanistic modeling. These methods should be applicable to the analysis of other complex biological processes.

SPARK: A Framework for Multi-Scale Agent-Based Biomedical Modeling.

Multi-scale modeling of complex biological systems remains a central challenge in the systems biology community. A method of dynamic knowledge representation known as agent-based modeling enables the study of higher level behavior emerging from discrete events performed by individual components. With the advancement of computer technology, agent-based modeling has emerged as an innovative technique to model the complexities of systems biology. In this work, the authors describe SPARK (Simple Platform for Agent-based Representation of Knowledge), a framework for agent-based modeling specifically designed for systems-level biomedical model development. SPARK is a stand-alone application written in Java. It provides a user-friendly interface, and a simple programming language for developing Agent-Based Models (ABMs). SPARK has the following features specialized for modeling biomedical systems: 1) continuous space that can simulate real physical space; 2) flexible agent size and shape that can represent the relative proportions of various cell types; 3) multiple spaces that can concurrently simulate and visualize multiple scales in biomedical models; 4) a convenient graphical user interface. Existing ABMs of diabetic foot ulcers and acute inflammation were implemented in SPARK. Models of identical complexity were run in both NetLogo and SPARK; the SPARK-based models ran two to three times faster.

Translational systems biology of inflammation: potential applications to personalized medicine.

A central goal of industrialized nations is to provide personalized, preemptive and predictive medicine, while maintaining healthcare costs at a minimum. To do so, we must confront and gain an understanding of inflammation, a complex, nonlinear process central to many diseases that affect both industrialized and developing nations. Herein, we describe the work aimed at creating a rational, engineering-oriented and evidence-based synthesis of inflammation geared towards rapid clinical application. This comprehensive approach, which we call 'Translational Systems Biology', to date has been utilized for in silico studies of sepsis, trauma/hemorrhage/traumatic brain injury, acute liver failure and wound healing. This framework has now allowed us to suggest how to modulate acute inflammation in a rational and individually optimized fashion using engineering principles applied to a biohybrid device. We suggest that we are on the cusp of fulfilling the promise of in silico modeling for personalized medicine for inflammatory disease.